Chi so chinh
Tổng quan tang truong
Quy 1 nam 2026, GDP Viet Nam tang 7,83% so voi cung ky -- tang manh tu muc 7,07% cua quy 1/2025 va la toc do tang truong nhanh nhat Dong Nam A. Ket qua nay vuot qua du bao cua hau het cac nha phan tich, khi ca khu vuc dich vu va san xuat deu hoat dong vuot ky vong.
Dac biet, khu vuc dich vu tang 8,18%, dong gop 50,32% tong tang truong -- dau hieu ro rang ve su chuyen doi co cau kinh te Viet Nam tu san xuat sang dich vu co gia tri gia tang cao hon. Su phuc hoi du lich sau dai dich la dong luc chinh, voi luong khach quoc te tang 35% so voi cung ky.
Photo: VietnamNews
Xuat nhap khau va thuong mai
Xuat khau tang 19,85% va nhap khau tang 24,27% so voi cung ky, phan anh nhu cau noi dia manh va hoat dong chuoi cung ung soi dong. Viet Nam tiep tuc huong loi tu xu huong 'China plus one', khi cac tap doan da quoc gia chuyen san xuat tu Trung Quoc sang Viet Nam de giam rui ro dia chinh tri va thue quan.
Khung thue quan 20% voi My -- du cao hon muc uu dai truoc -- mang lai su on dinh cho doanh nghiep. Xuat khau sang My van tang manh bat chap muc thue moi, cho thay san pham Viet Nam van canh tranh ngay ca voi thue cao hon. Cac mat hang xuat khau chu luc bao gom dien tu, det may, giay dep va do go.
-- Voi xuat khau tang 19,85%, mot nhà máy 500 cong nhan tai Binh Duong co the da tang doanh thu xuat khau them khoang 2-3 trieu USD trong quy nay.
Nang hang FTSE thi truong moi noi
Mot trong nhung su kien duoc cho doi nhat cua Viet Nam trong nam 2026 la viec nang hang tu thi truong bien gioi FTSE len thi truong moi noi, du kien vao thang 9. Su tai phan loai nay se tu dong kich hoat hang ty USD dong von dau tu thu dong tu cac quy theo doi chi so toan cau -- mot buoc ngoat cho thi truong chung khoan Viet Nam.
Tang truong GDP 7,83% trong quy 1 cang cung co lap luan cho viec nang hang. Xem them phan tich chi tiet tai FTSE nang hang Viet Nam 2026 va xuat khau san xuat Q1 tang vot.
Photo: VIR
Phuc hoi du lich
Du lich la mot trong nhung dong luc tang truong noi bat nhat. Luong khach quoc te tang 35% so voi cung ky, nho chinh sach visa thong thoang va cac duong bay quoc te moi. Cac diem den nhu Da Nang, Phu Quoc va Ha Long tiep tuc la diem nong, trong khi cac diem den moi nhu Ninh Binh va Ha Giang cung nhan duoc luong khach tang dang ke.
Thach thuc phia truoc
Du tang truong an tuong, Viet Nam van doi mat nhieu thach thuc. Muc thue 20% cua My, du on dinh, van cao hon truoc va co the anh huong den loi nhuan xuat khau dai han. Xung dot My-Iran co the day gia dau len, anh huong den chi phi van tai va lam phat. Ngoai ra, bat dong san van phuc hoi cham va no xau ngan hang can duoc xu ly de tranh rui ro he thong.
-- Neu gia dau tang tu 98 len 120 USD/thung do xung dot Iran, lam phat Viet Nam co the tang them 0,5-0,8 diem phan tram, anh huong truc tiep den 97 trieu nguoi dan.
Trien vong
Voi da tang truong 7,83% trong quy 1, Viet Nam dang tren da dat muc tieu tang truong ca nam 7,2%. Cac su kien quan trong phia truoc bao gom: viec nang hang FTSE vao thang 9 (co the mang ve hang ty USD dong von), cac du an dau tu tu phai doan USABC (hon 20 ty USD), va hop tac fintech voi Australia. Neu thuc thi chinh sach hieu qua va moi truong quoc te khong xau di qua nhieu, 2026 co the la nam tang truong an tuong nhat cua Viet Nam ke tu thoi ky truoc COVID.