Why did oil prices spike to $116 per barrel in March 2026?

Brent crude topped $116/barrel on March 30, 2026 due to the Iran-US conflict disrupting approximately 20% of global oil and LNG supply through the Strait of Hormuz closure. The war has caused oil prices to rise roughly 60% since it began on February 28, 2026, with additional pressure from Houthi missile attacks on Israel escalating regional instability.

What impact has the Strait of Hormuz closure had on global energy?

The Strait of Hormuz closure has reduced daily commercial vessel transits from 120 ships pre-war to just 7 non-Iranian vessels, cutting off approximately 20% of global oil and LNG supply. The IEA chief described it as the greatest global energy security challenge in history. Alternative routes via the Cape of Good Hope add 10-14 days of shipping time.

How are Houthi attacks affecting the Iran-Israel conflict?

Yemen Houthi forces launched their first direct ballistic missiles at Israel on March 29, 2026, opening a new front in the broader Iran-US conflict. This escalation has added significant risk premiums to energy markets and further complicated diplomatic efforts to contain the conflict.

What has Trump threatened regarding Iran energy infrastructure?

President Trump threatened to completely obliterate Iran energy sources if no diplomatic deal is reached. Iran responded by warning it would rain fire on US troops if a ground invasion occurs, creating a dangerous escalation cycle that has pushed oil markets to near-record levels.

How does the Iran war affect fuel prices in Vietnam?

Vietnam imports approximately 80% of its crude oil from the Middle East, making it highly vulnerable to the Hormuz disruption. Vietnamese fuel prices have reached 12-week highs, with the average motorcycle rider paying an estimated 220,000 VND more per month compared to pre-war prices. This has accelerated Vietnam biofuel transition policies.

Why did oil prices spike to $116 per barrel on Day 32 of the Iran war?

Oil prices surged to $116 per barrel on March 30, 2026, driven by the convergence of three critical factors: Iran's continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz which has removed approximately 20% of global oil and LNG supply from the market, the Houthi escalation with direct missile strikes on Israel beginning March 29, and Trump's threat to 'completely obliterate' Iranian energy infrastructure. These developments intensified supply fears among traders who now price in an extended conflict disrupting Gulf oil flows for months rather than weeks.

How much have oil prices risen since the US-Iran war started on February 28, 2026?

Since the US-Iran conflict began on February 28, 2026, Brent crude has risen approximately 60% from pre-war levels around $72 per barrel to above $116 as of March 30. US WTI futures have recorded a 53% gain in March alone, making it the best monthly performance since May 2020. Oil has traded above $100 per barrel for over 30 consecutive days, the first time in history this has occurred continuously. The IEA has described it as the greatest global energy security challenge in history.

What is the current status of the Strait of Hormuz blockade and its global impact?

Iran's selective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced daily vessel transits from approximately 120 pre-war to only 7 non-Iranian ships, representing a 94% drop in non-Iranian maritime traffic. The strait normally handles about 20% of all global oil and LNG shipments. This chokepoint crisis has disrupted supply chains across Asia, Europe, and Africa, with shipping insurance premiums spiking and alternative routes through the Cape of Good Hope adding 10-14 days to transit times and significantly increasing transportation costs.

What are the Houthi missile attacks on Israel and how do they affect the conflict?

On March 29, 2026, Houthi forces in Yemen launched their first direct ballistic missiles at Israeli territory, marking a major escalation in the wider regional conflict. Israel's Iron Dome intercepted two of three missiles. This development transforms the war from a bilateral US-Iran conflict into a multi-front regional crisis, as Houthis had previously focused on Red Sea shipping attacks. The attacks increase the risk of Israeli military response against Houthi positions in Yemen, potentially drawing more regional actors into the conflict.

How does the Iran war oil crisis affect consumers in Vietnam and Southeast Asia?

Vietnam and Southeast Asia face direct economic pressure from the oil crisis through multiple channels. Vietnamese domestic fuel prices have risen to 12-week highs, with RON 95 gasoline climbing significantly. Transportation costs for goods and raw materials have increased, pushing food prices higher. Vietnamese manufacturers relying on petroleum-based inputs face margin compression. The government has accelerated biofuel transition plans as a result. For average Vietnamese consumers, monthly transportation costs have risen by an estimated 150,000-200,000 VNĐ depending on commute distance.

BREAKING

US-IRAN CONFLICT  — DAY 0

Oil Tops $116 as Houthis Escalate, Hormuz Grinds to a Halt

Day 32 of the US-Iran conflict: oil up ~60% since the war began, Hormuz traffic down 94%, and Houthis open a new front against Israel.

Published: March 31, 2026

Photo: Al Jazeera

Key Takeaways

▸Brent topped $116/barrel on March 30 — highest since the $119 peak on March 19 (per Al Jazeera)
▸Oil has risen ~60% since the war started on February 28, 2026
▸Houthis launched first direct ballistic missiles at Israel on March 29
▸Hormuz traffic collapsed: 120 ships/day pre-war to just 7 non-Iranian vessels
▸IEA chief: 'Greatest global energy security challenge in history'

Oil Market Update — Day 32

Brent Crude

$116+2.4%

+61% since war began

WTI Crude

$102+1.8%

+52% since war began

RON 95 (Vietnam)

27,850 VNĐ+4.1%

+25% since war began

Brent crude topped $116 per barrel on March 30 — the highest since it briefly peaked at $119 on March 19. US WTI futures gained 53% in March, the best monthly performance since May 2020. Oil has traded above $100 for over 30 consecutive days, the first time in history such an extended streak has occurred.

A historic release of strategic petroleum reserves by multiple countries has failed to tame prices, demonstrating that the scale of the Hormuz disruption exceeds the capacity of reserves to compensate.

→ Filling a 50L tank in Vietnam now costs ~$14 more per fill compared to pre-war prices.

Hormuz Chokepoint: 94% Traffic Collapse

Strait of Hormuz: Maritime Traffic

Pre-war

120

ships/day

Current

7

non-Iranian ships

Traffic reduction0%

~20% of global oil and LNG supply disrupted

The Strait of Hormuz — the world's narrowest energy chokepoint — has effectively shut down for commercial shipping. From 120 daily transits before the war, only 7 non-Iranian vessels now pass through. According to Al Jazeera, the IEA chief has described this as the "greatest global energy security challenge in history."

Approximately 20% of global oil and LNG supply transits this strait. Alternative routes via the Cape of Good Hope add 10-14 days to shipping times, dramatically increasing logistics costs. War-risk insurance premiums for tankers have risen 8-10x from pre-conflict levels.

→ Vietnam imports ~80% of its crude from the Middle East. Higher shipping costs = domestic fuel prices keep climbing.

US military deployment in the Persian Gulf region

Photo: NBC News

Houthi Escalation: A New Front Against Israel

On March 29, Houthi forces in Yemen launched their first direct ballistic missiles at Israeli territory since the war began. Israel's Iron Dome intercepted two of three missiles. This event transforms the conflict from a bilateral US-Iran war into a multi-front regional crisis.

Previously, Houthis had focused their attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Directly targeting Israel raises the risk of Israeli military retaliation against Houthi positions in Yemen, potentially drawing more regional actors into the conflict.

→ A wider conflict means more shipping lanes threatened, pushing import costs even higher for Vietnam.

Trump's 'Obliterate' Threat vs Iran's 'Rain Fire' Warning

President Trump threatened to 'completely obliterate' Iran's energy sources if Tehran does not accept a deal. In response, Iran warned it would 'rain fire' on US troops if a ground invasion occurs. This escalatory rhetoric continues to drive oil prices higher as traders price in the possibility of even more severe disruptions.

Peace negotiations in Islamabad involving Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia continue in parallel but remain fragile. Oil markets are trading on worst-case scenarios, pushing Brent toward a record monthly gain.

→ Mutual US-Iran threats keep markets fearful, anchoring oil high despite record reserve releases.

Brent crude price chart surpassing $115 during Gulf crisis

Photo: CNBC

Escalation Timeline: Day 1 → 32

Feb 28

US-Israel launch strikes on Iran

Over 100 targets hit. Brent jumps 8% in single session.

Mar 2

Iran blocks Strait of Hormuz

Naval mines deployed, oil jumps 12% overnight.

Mar 13

IEA: Biggest oil shock in history

20M barrels/day removed from global supply.

Mar 19

Brent hits $119 peak

Highest level since 2014. Pentagon deploys additional Marines.

Mar 27

Houthis fire missiles at Israel

First-ever direct Houthi ballistic attack on Israeli territory.

Mar 29

Houthis launch second strike

Major escalation. Iron Dome intercepts successfully.

Mar 31

Brent tops $116, WTI at $102

Oil up ~60% since war began. Trump threatens to 'obliterate' Iran energy.

Ripple Effects: From Oil Fields to Dinner Tables

The oil price shock extends far beyond gas stations. Global freight costs have risen 35-50%, pushing food prices higher across many countries. Airlines have imposed emergency fuel surcharges, raising average ticket prices by 12-18%.

In Lebanon, the humanitarian crisis deepens: one-fifth of the population has been displaced, with 19,000 children affected daily. Food prices in the Middle East region have risen 25-40% compared to pre-conflict levels.

→ Vietnam rice exports benefit from Middle East demand (+8%), but domestic shipping costs rise in parallel.

Vietnam Impact Assessment

Vietnamese domestic fuel prices have reached 12-week highs. RON 95 gasoline has risen sharply, directly affecting the cost of living for millions of citizens. The government is accelerating biofuel transition plans as a medium-term solution.

Manufacturers relying on petroleum-based inputs face margin compression. The transportation and logistics sector is under pressure from rising freight rates, cascading into consumer goods prices.

Vietnam fuel price impact US-Iran Conflict hub

→ Average Vietnamese consumer spends an extra 150,000–200,000 VNĐ/month on transportation vs. pre-war levels.

Oil Price Scenarios: What Happens Next?

Energy analysts present three main scenarios for oil prices in April, based on military and diplomatic developments:

Base Case

$120

War continues, Hormuz stays closed. Oil oscillates $115–125.

Escalation

$140+

Ground invasion, expanded Houthi attacks. Oil could breach $140.

Deal Reached

$85–90

Ceasefire succeeds, Hormuz reopens. Rapid price decline.

Per ZestLab analysis, the base case ($115–125) carries the highest probability in the near term, as negotiations remain deadlocked but fighting intensity has not significantly escalated.

→ If oil hits $140, Vietnam gasoline could breach 30,000 VNĐ/liter — a new all-time record.