Photo: NBC News
Key Takeaways
- Trump told Daily Telegraph he is 'strongly considering' leaving NATO, calling it a 'paper tiger.'
- US law requires 2/3 Senate vote or Act of Congress for NATO withdrawal; one-year notice period required.
- Spain closed airspace; Italy denied Sicily base; France blocked supply planes; UK limited to defensive missions.
- US gas prices jumped 65% above $4/gallon; diesel up 91%. Oil briefly fell below $100 on ceasefire hopes.
- Trump claims Iran war will end in 'two to three weeks'; Iran denied requesting any ceasefire.
The NATO Withdrawal Threat
In an interview with the Daily Telegraph (via Time) on April 1, 2026, President Trump declared he is "strongly considering" withdrawing the United States from NATO. Trump called the world's largest military alliance a "paper tiger" after multiple European members refused to support the military campaign in Iran.
This marks the first time a sitting US president has publicly threatened to leave NATO during an active war. It also reveals the deep rift between America and its allies over the legitimacy of the Iran war, which NATO has not officially endorsed because it is an offensive campaign rather than a defensive action under Article 5.
-> If the US exits NATO, the global security architecture fundamentally changes, impacting even Southeast Asia.
Photo: Al Jazeera
Country-by-Country Pushback
According to Al Jazeera, key NATO allies have taken unprecedented concrete steps to distance themselves from the US military campaign in Iran. This marks the first time in the alliance's history that multiple members have simultaneously refused logistical support for a major American military operation.
Total ban on US military aircraft transiting Spanish airspace
Refused B-52 bombers use of Sigonella naval air station
US bombers permitted only for defensive operations, not offensive strikes
Denied overflight rights for US military transport aircraft
PM called NATO withdrawal threat 'reckless and dangerous' for European security
-> The US must route supplies through longer paths, adding billions in weekly operational costs.
Legal Reality: Can Trump Actually Exit NATO?
According to Time, despite Trump's threats, the legal reality presents significant barriers. The US Congress proactively built legal safeguards in 2023 to prevent exactly this scenario.
NATO Exit Legal Pathway
Article 13 of the Washington Treaty requires one full year of notice before withdrawal takes effect.
US law (2023) requires 2/3 Senate vote or an Act of Congress to authorize NATO withdrawal.
Bipartisan senators have pledged to sue if Trump attempts unilateral withdrawal from NATO.
Constitutional law scholars widely agree that any unilateral presidential action would face immediate federal court injunctions. However, the threat alone has already caused significant damage to alliance credibility and trust among member states.
-> Even if Trump cannot leave NATO immediately, the threat itself weakens the alliance's deterrence power.
Iran War Update: Day 34
According to NBC News, Trump claims the Iran war will end in "two to three weeks." However, Iran has denied requesting any ceasefire despite Trump's claims. The Houthis have launched a third missile barrage toward Israel, indicating the conflict continues to widen rather than narrow.
Oil briefly fell below $100 per barrel on ceasefire hopes but quickly recovered after Iran's denial. Markets continue to trade on worst-case scenarios as NATO division adds another layer of geopolitical uncertainty to the conflict.
-> Trump says 2-3 weeks, but Iran denies ceasefire. Markets don't buy the promise of a quick end.
Photo: NBC News
Economic Fallout
The combination of the Iran war, NATO crisis, and supply chain breakdown has created a multi-layered economic shock. US gasoline prices have jumped 65% above $4 per gallon, while diesel has surged 91% — a record increase putting pressure on every sector from transport to agriculture.
The NATO division compounds the situation: disrupted military supply routes force the US to use longer, costlier transportation paths, while European security uncertainty drives investors out of risk markets and into safe havens like gold and US treasuries.
-> US gas at $4/gallon signals continued upward pressure on global fuel prices, including Vietnam.
Expert Analysis
Security analysts warn that the NATO exit threat creates a dangerous spiral of instability. Russia is emboldened seeing the Western alliance fracture. Asian allies Japan, South Korea, and Australia are watching closely — fearing that if the US abandons NATO, security commitments in the Indo-Pacific would also weaken.
Per ZestLab analysis, the NATO threat may be a Trump negotiating tactic to pressure allies into greater burden-sharing. However, the damage to alliance credibility has already occurred regardless of the actual intent behind the statements.
-> ZestLab analysis: NATO threat may be leverage, but the consequences are already real.
Vietnam and Asia Impact
The NATO-Iran crisis impacts Vietnam through multiple channels. Rising global oil prices push domestic fuel costs higher. Global security instability slows foreign direct investment (FDI) flows as investors prioritize safe assets. Global supply chain disruptions affect Vietnamese exports across manufacturing and agriculture.
However, if the US genuinely reduces its global security commitment, ASEAN could benefit from a larger diplomatic intermediary role. Vietnam's multi-directional foreign policy could leverage this to expand trade relationships with both sides of the geopolitical divide.
-> Vietnam watch: fuel prices keep rising, FDI may slow, but diplomatic opportunities open up.
Timeline: From War to NATO Crisis
War begins. Over 100 targets struck on the first day of operations.
Naval mines deployed, 94% of non-Iranian maritime traffic disrupted.
Highest since 2014. Pentagon deploys additional 15,000 troops to region.
Multi-front escalation. Iron Dome intercepts 2 of 3 ballistic missiles.
Third missile strike toward Israel within 72 hours of initial attack.
Calls NATO a 'paper tiger' in Daily Telegraph interview. Allies push back hard.
Spain closes airspace, Italy denies base access, France blocks supply planes.
What Happens Next?
Trump backs down, NATO reaches new burden-sharing agreement.
Prolonged standoff. Trump continues threats but takes no formal action.
Trump signs executive order to exit. Congress and courts block immediately.
Per ZestLab analysis, Scenario 2 carries the highest probability: Trump uses the NATO threat as leverage but does not take formal action due to legal barriers. However, long-term damage to the alliance has already begun accumulating.