How the War Started: The February 28 Strikes
On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched large-scale surprise strikes targeting Iran's nuclear facilities and ballistic missile program. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the initial wave of strikes — an event analysts described as fundamentally altering the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East.
According to Wikipedia, the campaign had a stated dual objective: destroy tếhran's nuclear and missile capabilities, while creating conditions for regime change. Within the first 72 hours, Israel conducted over 7,600 strikes on Iran and another 1,100 in Lebanon, tracked by Wikipedia's 2026 Iran war article.
Despite President Trump claiming that Iran's military had been "decimated," he refused to issue a formal war declaration under Article 5 of the US Constitution, creating a legal and political contradiction now being debated in Congress. See also the Israel-Lebanon war developments from the same period.
Military Operations Map (Overview)
7,600+ Israeli strikes. Priority targets: Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, Bushehr nuclear and missile sites. 1,444+ killed.
1,100+ strikes since Feb 28. Targeting Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon and Beirut suburbs.
Iran struck Al Minhad Air Base and Fujairah port. France deployed Rafale jets to provide UAE air defense cover.
Iran launched Shahed drones across the Persian Gulf. High risk to oil shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz.
War Timeline
US and Israel launch surprise strikes on Iran. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is killed in the initial wave of strikes targeting nuclear and ballistic missile sites.
Iran retaliates: strikes Al Minhad Air Base in UAE (home to Australian forces) and sets fire to the Fujairah oil terminal. Shahed drones cross the Persian Gulf.
France deploys Rafale jets to the UAE in response to Iranian attacks on UAE territory.
US strike hits a girls elementary school in Minab, Iran — 170+ killed, mostly schoolgirls. Pentagon opens investigation into whether US forces are at fault.
Joe Kent, US Counterterrorism Center chief, resigns in protest over the war. Iran's Foreign Minister states: "We never asked for a ceasefire."
Day 18: President Trump asks China to delay Xi meeting "a month or so" due to the Iran war. Congress debates war authorization while 7 US service members have been killed.
The Minab School Bombing: International Controversy
A US airstrike on a girls' elementary school in Minab, Iran killed over 170 people, the majority of whom were schoolchildren. This is the deadliest single incident since the war began.
The strike occurred on March 14 and immediately triggered international condemnation. The Pentagon opened an investigation, with preliminary indications suggesting US forces may be at fault for the strike, according to reporting by Democracy Now.
The incident intensified pressure on the US Congress to formally authorize or oversee the military operation. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee convened emergency hearings after the strike. The bombing also raised questions about international humanitarian law and legal accountability under the laws of war.
Iranian Counter-Strikes Across the Region
Iran did not respond by seeking a ceasefire. Instead, Iranian forces expanded the conflict beyond their borders, striking US allies and partners across the region. Al Minhad Air Base in the UAE — home to Australian forces — was struck by missiles and drones. The Fujairah oil terminal in the UAE was also hit, causing a major fire that disrupted oil exports.
Iran launched Shahed drones across the Persian Gulf, creating direct risk for commercial and military shipping lanes. Iran's Foreign Minister clearly confirmed Tehran's position: "We never asked for a ceasefire." Read more about the economic impact at the oil price spike 2026 page.
The war had killed 7 American service members as of March 18. While small compared to Iranian casualties, it creates significant domestic political pressure in the US. According to Al Jazeera reporting, Iran's strikes targeted military and energy infrastructure, reflecting a strategy of gradually attriting US forces and resolve over time.
US Domestic Politics: Resignations and Congressional Reaction
On March 17, Joe Kent — head of the US Counterterrorism Center — resigned in opposition to the war. It is one of the highest-profile resignations within the national security apparatus since the war began, reflecting internal divisions within the Trump administration over the goals and trajectory of the military campaign.
The US Congress is debating whether to pass a formal Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF). Multiple senators from both parties have raised concerns about the constitutionality of the campaign — especially following the Minab school strike. Several lawmakers demanded the Pentagon provide evidence of target selection and airstrike approval processes.
President Trump maintained the executive branch had full authority to conduct the campaign. He described the results as a success and called Iran's military "decimated," but simultaneously stated there were no plans to issue a formal declaration of war.
International Response: France, Australia, UAE
Following Iran's strike on Al Minhad Air Base in the UAE — home to Australian forces — France deployed Rafale fighter jets to the United Arab Emirates. This marked the first time France deployed forces into a direct regional conflict since its intervention in Libya. The decision reflects France's commitment to the security of its Gulf partners.
Australia confirmed its forces at Al Minhad suffered no casualties in the Iranian strike, but the Australian government placed forces on high alert and stated it was reviewing its military presence in the region. The UAE — historically a neutral state — was forced to coordinate directly with the Western coalition to defend its own territory.
According to the UK House of Commons Research Briefing, the war has created significant pressure on NATO and regional alliances to define appropriate levels of involvement without escalating into a full-scale conflict with Iran.
Economic Impact: Oil, War Costs, and Markets
The US spent over $10 billion in just the first two weeks of the war — a spending rate significantly faster than the early stages of previous conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. Strikes on oil infrastructure in the Persian Gulf have strained global oil supply, pushing Brent crude prices sharply higher.
The Strait of Hormuz — through which approximately 20% of global crude oil flows — faces serious disruption risk. Market analysts warn that if Iran blockades the strait, oil prices could exceed $120 per barrel. Read the detailed analysis on oil price volatility in 2026.
Diplomacy: Trump Postpones Xi Meeting
One of the most significant diplomatic developments was President Trump's request that China postpone a summit meeting with President Xi Jinping "a month or so" due to the Iran situation. This signals the war is directly affecting the global diplomatic calendar and Washington's foreign policy priorities.
China did not publicly comment on the postponement but called for an immediate ceasefire through diplomatic channels at the United Nations. Beijing has significant economic interests in Iran — including oil contracts and infrastructure under the 25-year agreement signed in 2021 — making the war a direct concern for Chinese national interests.
How the War Might End: Scenarios
China or Qatar brokers negotiations; Iran agrees to freeze its nuclear program in exchange for a halt to airstrikes. Obstacle: Iran has publicly stated it did not ask for a ceasefire.
The US continues strikes over many months, similar to campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq. Iran maintains a war of attrition via proxy forces and ballistic missiles.
Iran activates its full proxy network — Hezbollah, Houthis, Kataib Hezbollah. Risk of the conflict spreading into Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon increases significantly.
The original stated US-Israel goal. Iranian opposition groups rise amid a weakened military. Considered the least likely scenario in the short term.
Historical Context: US Military in the Middle East
The 2026 US-Iran war did not occur in a vacuum. The US has maintained a continuous military presence in the Middle East since the 1991 Gulf War. US-Iran tensions escalated significantly after the US withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA) in 2018 and the assassination of General Qasem Soleimani in 2020.
In 2022, Iran announced it possessed enough enriched uranium for multiple nuclear warheads, though it did not declare actual weapons production. This was the core factor driving Washington and Tel Aviv's decision to launch a preemptive strike in February 2026.
The history of US military intervention in the Middle East — from Iraq to Afghanistan — suggests that initially successful campaigns often face protracted difficulties during post-war stabilization phases. Analysts worry that even if the US achieves its short-term military goals, restabilizing Iran following Khamenei's death poses unprecedented challenges.
Key Takeaways
- ▸War began Feb 28, 2026 — US and Israel launched surprise strikes on Iran, killing Khamenei
- ▸7,600+ Israeli strikes; 1,444+ killed in Iran as of March 17
- ▸The Minab school bombing (170+ schoolchildren killed) is the most contested single incident
- ▸US spent $10B+ in first 2 weeks; Iran struck UAE and Persian Gulf targets in retaliation
- ▸Iran refuses ceasefire; Joe Kent resigned; Trump won't issue formal war declaration
- ▸China asked to postpone summit; France deployed Rafale jets to UAE